PART 1

‘Softness is appeasement & only inflames Russia’s appetite’ — Ukrainian envoy on G20 declaration

Ambassador Oleksandr Polishchuk says Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was 'deprived' of opportunity to attend New Delhi G20 summit. Part 1 of a three-part interview series.

India “unwittingly” violated the principles of its neutrality in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict by not inviting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to address the G20 summit in New Delhi, Oleksandr Polishchuk, the ambassador of Ukraine to India, told ThePrint in an interaction earlier this month.

“By depriving the President of Ukraine of the opportunity to participate in the Delhi G20 summit, India unwittingly violated the principles of its neutrality. Because it is a matter of compliance, justice, equal opportunities and political pluralism as the basic principles of democracy,” Polishchuk said in written comments to ThePrint.

“We believe that no decision regarding Ukraine should be made without Ukraine. Delhi should understand that this is one of the fundamental principles for Ukraine,” the ambassador added.

Polishchuk also termed the difference in positions between the Bali G20 declaration and the Delhi declaration “significant and fundamental in Kyiv’s perception”.

India had hosted the leaders of the Group of 20 nations in New Delhi on 9-10 September. The summit led to the New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration (NDLD), where all leaders present, including the Russian delegation, agreed to specific language in the final declaration that avoided direct criticism of Russia in its war in Ukraine.

The language in the NDLD was different from the language used in the declaration made at the end of the G20 summit held in Bali in November 2022, which “deplores” in the “strongest terms” the Russian “aggression” against Ukraine.

The NDLD, however, termed the conflict the “war in Ukraine” rather than “against”, and called on all states to act in line with the principles of the United Nations Charter in its “entirety”.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar in September defended the formulation of the language on the conflict in Ukraine, saying that: “Bali was Bali, New Delhi is Delhi. Many things have happened since the Bali declaration.”

Zelenskyy had addressed the G20 leaders in Bali, outlining the 10-point Ukrainian formulation for peace, which included nuclear and radiation safety, food security, energy security, release of prisoners, restoration of Ukrainian territorial integrity and the cessation of hostilities, to name a few points of the proposal.

‘Softness is appeasement’

“The difference in the positions that were declared by the leaders of the G20 states in Bali in 2022 and in Delhi in 2023 looks quite significant and fundamental in Kyiv’s perception,” Polishchuk said.

“A strong condemnation of the war — ‘the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine and demand (of) its complete and unconditional withdrawal from the territory of Ukraine’ was replaced with a softer formulation,” he added.

He emphasised that Russia “must be named directly and publicly and condemned for its aggressive actions”.

Polishchuk asserted that “softness is appeasement and it only inflames the aggressor’s appetites. We have seen this more than once in world history”.

“We also hoped that, as last year, the President of Ukraine would receive an invitation to participate in the Delhi G20 Summit. Unfortunately, this didn’t happen. Despite all the efforts of Ukrainian diplomacy and our allies and partners. Did it help to avoid discussions about Ukraine and the impact of the war started by Russia on the world agenda? Definitely not,” Polishchuk said.

G20 declaration ‘nothing to be proud of’ 

In September, Oleh Nikolenko, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian foreign ministry, had said in a post on social media that the NDLD was “nothing to be proud of” in terms of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Polishchuk said that the fact that Zelenskyy was not invited to address the New Delhi G20 summit was part of Russia’s “neo-colonial strategy” to deprive Ukraine of international agency.

“This is a part of Putin’s neo-colonial strategy to marginalise and deprive Ukraine of international subjectivity, and then negotiate its fate between ‘power centres’ through backroom channels,” he said.

Jaishankar, addressing a press briefing on the outcomes of the G20 summit in September, had said that the grouping was not the forum to solve geopolitical and security issues. However, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has had serious ramifications for the world economy.

For example, the Russian withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal, which allowed the export of grain and oil from Ukraine, led to a surge in global food prices earlier this year.

PART 2

Ukraine won opening phases of war against Russia, will win in long term, says Ukrainian envoy

Oleksandr Polishchuk says joining EU & NATO are “existential” choices for Kyiv's security — otherwise it would have to rejoin nuclear arms club. Part 2 of 3-part interview series.

Ukraine has already “won” the opening phases of the war against Russia after “enduring” for almost two years, disrupting Moscow’s plan for a quick victory, Oleksandr Polishchuk, the Ukrainian ambassador to India, told ThePrint in an exclusive interview earlier this month.

“The Russian blitzkrieg plan in Ukraine failed. Today, the war has the character of a protracted armed conflict. To achieve quick victory is quite problematic. But Ukraine has already won after having endured almost two years in the fight against a mammoth nuclear state,” said Polishchuk in a written communication with ThePrint.

The ambassador asserted that Russia’s aim is the “complete destruction of statehood and the colonisation of Ukraine” and the “extermination” of Ukrainians as a nation.

His comments come as the war in Ukraine completes 22 months in December, with neither side able to make significant gains on the ground.

On 24 February 2022, at 5 am (Ukrainian time), Russia unleashed a massive land and air assault on Ukraine from multiple borders, including through Belarus, according to reports from Kyiv.

Russian President Vladimir V. Putin described the attack as a “special military operation” aimed at demilitarising Ukraine and defending Russia from the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).

“The purpose of this [military intervention in Ukraine] operation is to protect people who for eight years now have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kyiv regime. To this end we will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine,” Putin said in his statement on 24 February as translated and published by the Russian mission in Geneva on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter).

Putin invoked World War 2 and denaziifying the country to justify Russia’s aggression against Ukraine — whose President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is Jewish.

“There were no threats of the use of force against Russia by Ukraine or NATO member states — both on the eve of the invasion and long before. Therefore, there is nothing that could support the legal justification of Russia’s military attack on Ukraine,” Polishchuk said.

He added that Ukraine had been facing Russian hostility since 2014 in a hybrid format. “In February 2022, Russia moved to an open military intervention against Ukraine.” 

War of attrition 

Polishchuk said that after Russia’s original strategy of a “blitzkrieg” failed, Moscow is now focusing on a war of attrition and “resource depletion.”

He asserted that this strategy would also backfire, given the huge costs incurred by the Russian government during the war.

“Putin’s current strategy is to win the long war of resource depletion. By the way, there is nothing new in Russian military strategy since the Napoleonic Wars. He believes that [Ukraine’s] Western partners will gradually become fatigued, lose their interest in Ukraine, and will stop providing military and technical assistance,” said the ambassador.

“However, as always, Putin overestimates his capabilities and underestimates the potential of the opposing side when developing a strategy for both quick and protracted war,” he added. 

Polishchuk said that Russia’s daily direct expenses for the war against Ukraine are about $300 million. “According to official data, in the first half of 2023 alone, Russia spent on defence 12 percent more than the $54 billion it originally planned for 2023.”

He contended that this added military burden was reminiscent of the arms race between the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and the US during the Cold War, which resulted in the collapse of the USSR – the “greatest geopolitical disaster” of the 20th century according to Putin.

“One of the reasons for the collapse of the USSR, which Putin is so nostalgic about, is excessive spending on the arms race in competition with the US, which finally exhausted the country’s resources,” said the ambassador.

The other effect of the war on Russia, he said, is a large number of Russian casualties — roughly 0.5 percent of its total male population, or between 2,90,000 and 3,50,000 casualties since February 2022. 

According to media reports, the Russian defence ministry reported a total of 5,937 casualties between February and September 2022. No further data has been revealed since.

NATO, EU membership ‘existential’ choices for Ukraine

Polishchuk argued that there were no threats to Russia from NATO and that Finland and Sweden — two countries that enjoyed neutrality for years — had no inclinations to join NATO before the war, but after Russian aggression fast tracked-their applications to enter the alliance. “Although before the war, these countries enjoyed their neutrality and even never seriously discussed NATO membership.”

He said it was important to address Putin’s great concern about NATO expansion. “It is crystal clear that in the architecture of modern European security, NATO remains the only effective guarantor of military security, taking into account current and prospective threats,” Polischuk added.

For Ukraine, European Union (EU) and NATO memberships are the only “existential” choices to ensure its national security — the other option is Ukraine returning to the club of nuclear-armed nations.

“The experience of our Baltic friends, who also have historical trauma from the Soviet era, clearly demonstrates that membership in the EU and NATO is the only strategic path or even an existential choice to ensure Ukraine’s national security,” the ambassador said.

According to him, EU membership will be a guarantee of economic security and stable development of the country, and membership in NATO should become a long-term guarantee from any armed aggression against Ukraine.

“Otherwise, Ukraine would have to return to the club of nuclear states to protect its statehood and sovereignty. Like India, Ukraine must balance its own military potential with a potentially dangerous neighbour,” he added.

On 14 December, the EU agreed to open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova despite internal opposition from Hungary and its prime minister, Viktor Orbán.

Any decision on enlargement of the EU requires unanimous agreement among its leaders in the European Council. To ensure accession talks with Ukraine would be agreed upon unanimously by the European Council, Orbán stepped out of the discussion room during the vote — highlighting the complexities that the Zelenskyy administration faces in achieving its goal of joining the EU, according to media reports.

War costs for Ukraine

The ambassador highlighted that the economic situation within Ukraine is “difficult” as a result of the war. Ukraine received about $37.4 billion in external financing between January and November 2023, according to a statement made by Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on 5 December.

According to Polishchuk, since the beginning of the war, Washington D.C. has directed over $75 billion to Ukraine.

However, the US Congress has been unable to agree to new funding for Kyiv, due to its domestic debate on linking any further aid to Ukraine to domestic border security funding within the US.

The Biden administration has reportedly been unable to find a breakthrough with Congress during talks between the Republicans and Democrats this month — pushing negotiations to 2024.

“Today, there are certain difficulties in the US with making decisions regarding the amount of military aid for Ukraine. But in my opinion, they are purely technical,” said Polischuk.

He clarified that no financial aid from external partners is used for defence purposes, saying, “If we are talking about the amount of international military and technical assistance to Ukraine, it should be noted that we do not receive direct financial income from partners and allies. Ukraine receives military equipment and machinery.”

The EU, meanwhile, is facing its own internal divisions on continuing aid to Ukraine. According to media reports, Orbán blocked an agreement for $50 billion in funding to Ukraine, also pushing EU negotiations to next year.

To bridge this gap in funding, the US and its G7 partners are looking at legal methods to use nearly $300 billion worth of frozen Russian assets in Western financial institutions to support Ukraine, according to The New York Times (NYT).

Such a decision would be illegal without the support of the US Congress, according to Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, as reported by the NYT.

“Ukraine expects that the main source of covering costs for post-war reconstruction will be frozen Russian assets accumulated abroad. Most of these frozen assets are located in the G7 countries — approximately $280 billion,” Polishchuk said.

“The G7 countries also stated that they will study all possible ways of providing assistance to Ukraine in accordance with legal systems and international law, including using frozen sovereign assets of Russia,” he added.

However, despite the complexities Kyiv faces, the ambassador is confident that Moscow will lose the war in the long term.

“In the medium or long term, Russia will definitely lose. What this loss will be and on what scale depends on its leadership. The sooner Russia realises this, the smaller its losses will be,” he said.

PART 3

Ukraine envoy rues scaling down of bilateral ties since war began, wants Modi to visit Kyiv

Dr Oleksandr Polishchuk, Ukrainian envoy to India, says visit by Modi to Kyiv would confirm India’s ‘leading role’ in establishing peace, in Part III of interview series with ThePrint.

“I wonder if Indians know that every second bottle of sunflower oil they buy in the store comes from Ukraine? Or that the engines of the carrier rocket used for the successful Chandrayaan-3 moon mission were designed in Ukraine and built in India in cooperation with Ukrainian manufacturers?” rued Oleksandr Polishchuk, the Ukrainian ambassador to India.

In an exclusive interview with ThePrint earlier this month, Polishchuk conveyed in written communication that the scale of “bilateral economic cooperation” between India and Ukraine was “much better” before the war between Russia and Ukraine broke out.

In 2021-22, India imported $2.1 billion worth of sunflower, safflower or cottonseed oil (HS Code: 1512) from Ukraine – the largest in terms of value of import in the year in this category, according to data published by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

Russia was a distant second, with Russian imports to India of the same goods weighing in at $479 million in the corresponding period.

Data from the ministry also shows that India’s imports of these oils from Ukraine declined in 2022-23, following the Russian invasion of the former USSR country on 24 February 2022.

India imported $604 million worth of sunflower, safflower or cottonseed oil from Ukraine in 2022-23 — a 71 percent drop compared to the previous year.

Russian imports of the same, however, increased during this period by 86 percent to $894 million. An increase in imports of these goods from other countries made up for the shortfall of imports from Ukraine, namely Argentina (by 188 percent to $746.26 million), Bulgaria (by 947 percent to $243.75 million), Romania (by 1,127 percent to $274.68 million) and Türkiye (by 743,426 percent to $193.32 million).

In April of this year, in Uganda, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar highlighted how India faced difficulties importing edible oils, especially sunflower oil, in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

“What was a less noticed story was actually the problems which a country like India faced in terms of edible oil because we were big importers of sunflower oil from Ukraine,” he was quoted as saying.

However, the drop in imports of edible oils from Ukraine indicates India’s search for alternative suppliers, including Latin American countries such as Argentina, impacting its economic ties with Ukraine.

Call for Modi to visit Kyiv

Polishchuk said a visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Kyiv would confirm India’s role as a messenger of peace across the world, keeping in spirit of the Prime Minister’s clarion call of “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” or “the world is one family”.

Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam was also the theme of India’s G20 presidency during 2023 – “One Earth, One Family, One Future”.

“I am convinced that the visit to Kyiv of the leader of the Global South, Honourable Prime Minister of India Shri Narendra Modi, will receive a wide global publicity and appreciation. It will be a confirmation of India’s leading role in establishing peace in the whole world. Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam,” Polishchuk told ThePrint.

“At the same time, we need to return the intensity of interaction between our political leadership. The last visit of the President of Ukraine to India was in 2012. Since 2005, the President of India has not visited Ukraine,” he said.

This year, however, saw some interaction between the political leadership of the two countries.

Modi met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan, while Ukraine’s First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Emine Dzhaparova visited Delhi in April.

Polishchuk pointed out that a number of world leaders including the Presidents of the US, France, Slovakia, Greece, Poland and the EU, to name a few, have all visited Ukraine since the outbreak of war.

“During this time, the Presidents of the USA, France, Slovakia, Greece, Turkey, Guatemala, Finland, Czech Republic, Estonia, Moldova, Romania, Portugal, Germany, Hungary, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Switzerland, Indonesia, South Africa, South Korea, Senegal, Guinea Bissau, Zambia, Comoros Islands (visited Kyiv),” he said.

“The President of Ukraine also hosted in Kyiv prime ministers of the UK, Canada, Japan, Spain, Iceland, Denmark, Netherlands, Slovenia, Croatia, Norway, Sweden, Ireland, Albania, Montenegro, Luxembourg, Australia, Belgium, Egypt, Qatar,” the ambassador added.

Polishchuk also explained how Zelenskyy has called on world leaders to visit Ukraine to witness the “consequences” of Russian aggression first-hand. However, despite no visit from Modi to Ukraine so far, Polishchuk added that Ukraine is grateful for India’s support till date.

“We are grateful for India’s support of our struggle for independence. And we highly appreciate India’s permanent involvement in the implementation of President Zelenskyy’s Peace Formula. Thousands of Ukrainians received targeted humanitarian aid from India,” he told ThePrint.